3D printing appears to be the new tech hype. I must agree that some of the new applications really are impressive and progress is fast. The “revolution” that is advocated is essentially based on a substantial reduction in economies of scale, a large increase in opportunities for mass customized products, and essentially the elimination for the need to transport goods.

From a supply chain perspective, a number of key elements are not addressed.

First, this is materials coordination. If a product consists of only a few composites, and those very few composites are used to produce a large variety of consumer products that you would buy. I would say that it is highly unlikely that a huge variety of products will consist of only a small number of composites. Assuming that in the future also glass and metal could be printed (let’s think that the sky is the limit), the number of raw materials to produce a reasonable set of products is likely to increase substantially. Even just restricting it to polymers, there are so many different polymers with specific properties, that even within there this variety is supposed to be huge. Printing locally at your home would then imply stocking up on these raw materials, and making sure you have everything available. I would argue this is very unlikely.

Second, I think that in many analyses, the cost of transportation in today’s supply chains is grossly overestimated. For instance, in a recent HBR blog, the author argued that “even if the per-unit production cost is higher, it will be more than offset by the elimination of shipping and of buffer inventories.” I think this is highly unlikely. The costs of transportation to developed markets are rarely more than 10% of the product value. This would imply that the per-unit production cost should not be more than 10% higher than for producing this product in a low-cost efficient factory. If that were the case, it would be insult to what production engineers could accomplish.

Of course, having much more customizable products brings a benefit. But these opportunities already abound. Think of the furniture that is made to order, or shoes that you can order online to be made fit exactly to your needs. With the current same-day delivery that is now developing in the US, at-home production is very unlikely. Manufacturing closer to consumer markets to allow for larger variety, shorter product life cycles, and short delivery times will definitely happen. But this is merely a continuation of a trend already started decades ago when Dell introduced its make-to-order model for PC assembly.

3D printing thus is not a manufacturing revolution, but just a technology on the evolutionary path of making it easier to customize products. it will hence not cause dramatic changes in our supply chains, but be one element that defines their evolutionary path.