Aggregate sales forecasting on long-term business cycles

Summary Companies go through consistent business cycles, some long-term regular, other triggered by major events such as the bankrupty of Lehman Brothers in 2008. We model these cycles using inventory dynamics and obtain very accurate and relevant forecasts of sales cycles. We further study the ways in which companies adjust inventories due to dynamics. In the 2020 Coronacrisis, we model the rampup of supply chains after lockdowns.
Collaborators Maxi Udenio (KU Leuven); Kai Hoberg (KLU)

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